Reasonability and Sensibility

December 20, 2018. Following the Fed rate hike, stock indices dropped to new lows to confirm the entry of a bear market. This should not be a surprise to a significant portion of stock traders. Back to October this year, many people already had a pretty firm belief (still not 100% sure, as there is never ever a 100% certainty in this world) that the Bear was approaching to kill. And for some of them, the whipsaw patterns within last two months have been nothing but a further confirmation that the market was on its way to fall, and to fall heavily. However, not many of these believers took home a good profit even though their prediction turned out to be correct. Why? This question got me to examine two concepts: reasonability and sensibility.

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Buy low, sell high.

Right. It’s a simple game. But are you ready for it?

** Chapter I **

“Full many a glorious morning have I seen

Flatter the mountain tops with sovereign eye,

Kissing with golden face the meadows green,

Gilding pale streams with heavenly alchemy…”

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THE LESSONS OF HISTORY¶

• Will & Ariel Durant

The celebrated collection of essays compiling over 5,000 years of history by two of the greatest thinkers of our time.

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Winning at Active Management¶

The Essential Role of Culture, Philosophy, and Technology

William Priest, Steven Bleiberg, Michael Welhoelter with John Keefe

July 2016

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New Reflections on IFRS 9 Implementation

Principles - Ray Dalio

VXX、XIV、UVXY、SVXY等众多的VIX指数ETP产品，是市场上风险结构最为复杂的金融工具产品(注意我们强调金融工具产品，而不是金融产品)。

我们在前面多篇文章逐步介绍了与搭建这些ETP产品有关的基础产品的相关知识，也初步演示了部分量化分析方法和代码样本。其中的细节是读者需要深入理解并熟练掌握的。

在正式引入ETP之前，还有一个重要概念需要解释－这就是几乎所有VIX指数ETP产品所跟踪的S&P 500 VIX期货系列指数(S&P 500 VIX Futures Index Series)。有关详细内容，请读者参考S&P Dow Jones Indices官方网站查阅。

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